Probabilistic preference models predict that a subject makes different choices with different probabilities in repeatedly experiments with the same stimuli. This paper explains why. First, we prove that a gamble is a statistical ensemble or sample function of a random field with canonical...

This paper extends decision making under risk and uncertainty to group theory via representations of invariant behavioural space for prospect theory. First, we predict that canonical specifications for value functions, probability weighting functions, and stochastic choice maps are homomorphic....

How do financial markets switch from states of optimism to pessimism and vice versa? Given that a financial market is currently stable, what is the probability that it will become unstable and crash? We answer those questions in the context of a natural experiment with risk sources of...

This note is based on a recent confidence index introduced in the context of compensating probability factors for deviations of subjective probability measures from equivalent martingale measures. The index is adjusted for loss gain probability spreads, and it explains momentum in confidence. We...

The goal programming (GP) is a well-known approach applied to multi-criteria decision making (M-DM). It has been used in many domains and the literature offers diverse extensions of this procedure. On the other hand, so far, some evident analogies between M-DM under certainty and scenario-based...

Realized divergence gauges the distinct realized moments associated with time-varying uncertainty and is tradeable with divergence swaps engineered from delta-hedged option portfolios. Consistently with established notions of symmetry in arbitrage-free option markets, implied divergence...

The paper is motivated by a problem concerning the monotonicity of insurance premiums with respect to their loading parameter: the larger the parameter, the larger the insurance premium is expected to be. This property, usually called loading monotonicity, is satisfied by premiums that appear in...

The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) in third party ship management and their contribution to the Shipping Performance Index (SPI). This research is mainly motivated from the SPI initiative which is established by the InterManager for the...

Problems in econometrics, insurance, reliability engineering, and statistics quite often rely on the assumption that certain functions are non-decreasing. To satisfy this requirement, researchers frequently model the underlying phenomena using parametric and semi-parametric families of...

We derive sufficient conditions for non-emptyness of the efficient set for Stochastic Dominance Relations, commonly applied in Economics and Finance, over sets of distributions on the real line. We do so via the use of the concept of stochastic spanning and its characterization via a saddle type...