Narrow search
Showing 1 - 10 of 132,340
Cover Image
The New Keynesian Phillips Curve of Rational Expectations : A Serial Correlation Extension
Zhang, Chengsi; Clovis, Joel - 2010
an IV test for serial correlation in the GMM context, we find that the error term in the stylized NKPC model is …This paper evaluates the empirical validity of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model of rational expectations … inflation are needed in the hybrid specification of the NKPC in order to rule out serial correlation in the Euler equation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014194150
Cover Image
Disagreement among forecasters in G7 countries
Dovern, Jonas; Fritsche, Ulrich; Slacalek, Jirka - 2009
Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425866
Cover Image
Forecasting and policy making
Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik H. - 2012
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010394237
Cover Image
Inflation expectations and their role in Eurosystem forecasting
2021
This paper summarises the findings of the Eurosystem's Expert Group on Inflation Expectations (EGIE), which was one of the 13 work streams conducting analysis that fed into the ECB's monetary policy strategy review. The EGIE was tasked with (i) reviewing the nature and behaviour of inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012626673
Cover Image
Macroeconomic stabilisation and monetary policy effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment
Coenen, Günter; Montes-Galdón, Carlos; Schmidt, Sebastian - 2021
The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012613426
Cover Image
Shocks versus structure : explaining differences in exchange rate pass-through across countries and time
Forbes, Kristin; Hjortsoe, Ida; Nenova, Tsvetelina - 2017
We show that exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices varies not only across countries, but also over time. Previous literature has highlighted the role of an economy's "structure" - such as its inflation volatility, inflation rate, use of foreign currency invoicing, and openness - in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011671018
Cover Image
Effects of state-dependent forward guidance, large-scale asset purchases and fiscal stimulus in a low-interest-rate environment
Coenen, Günter; Montes-Galdon, Carlos; Smets, Frank - 2020
We study the incidence and severity of lower-bound episodes and the efficacy of three types of state-dependent policies - forward guidance about the future path of interest rates, large-scale asset purchases and spending-based fiscal stimulus - in ameliorating the adverse consequences stemming...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012137689
Cover Image
Effects of state-dependent forward guidance, large-scale asset purchases and fiscal stimulus in a low-interest-rate environment
Coenen, Günter; Montes-Galdón, Carlos; Smets, Frank - 2020
We study the incidence and severity of lower-bound episodes and the efficacy of three types of state-dependent policies - forward guidance about the future path of interest rates, large-scale asset purchases and spending-based fiscal stimulus - in ameliorating the adverse consequences stemming...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012149021
Cover Image
Macroeconomic stabilisation and monetary policy effectiveness in a low-interest-rate environment
Coenen, Günter; Montes-Galdón, Carlos; Schmidt, Sebastian - 2021
The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012594057
Cover Image
The information content of the yield spread about future inflation in South Africa
Ntshakala, Manqoba; Harris, Laurence - 2018
The proposition that inflation expectations can be extracted as inflation predictions from the government bond yield curve has been tested, with partially positive results, using data from the United States and European countries. Despite the abundance of empirical studies of the proposition,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011873970