The aim of this paper is to develop an optimal long-term bond investment strategy which can be applied to real market situations. This paper employs Merton’s intertemporal framework to accommodate the features of a stochastic interest rate and the time-varying dynamics of bond returns. The...

A new class of model-based filters for extracting trends and cycles in economic time series is presented. These low pass and band pass filters are derived in a mutually consistent manner as the joint solution to a signal extraction problem in an unobserved components model. The resulting trends...

Problem Statement The framework of this study is consisted of the countries of zone CFA and in fact the two central banks (BCEAO and BEAC) in charge of the monetary policy implementation. There was a great resurgence of interest these last years on the question in the way of leading the monetary...

In this paper we analyze disinflation policy when a central bank has imperfect information about private sector inflation expectations but learns about them from economic outcomes, which are in part the result of the disinflation policy. The form of uncertainty is manifested as uncertainty about...

This paper is an empirical research of a monetary policy rule for a small open economy model, taking Switzerland as a case-study. A time-varying parameter model of a monetary policy reaction function is proposed to integrate various trade-offs to be made about various macroeconomic variables --...

If theory-consistent models can ever hope to forecast well and to be useful for policy, theyhave to relate to data which though rich in information is uncertain, unbalanced and sometimes forecastsfrom external sources about the future path of other variables. One example from many is financial...

This paper deals with dynamic term structure models (DTSMs) and proposes a new way to handle the limitation of the classical affine models. In particular, the paper expands the exibility of the DTSMs by applying generalized Brownian motions with dependent increments as the governing force of the...

We use high frequency financial data to proxy, via the realised variance, each day's financial variability. Based on a semiparametric stochastic volatility process, a limit theory shows you can represent the proxy as a true underlying variability plus some measurement noise with known...