We examine if US inflation rates series can be characterized by a long-memory model, by a model with occasional level shifts or by a new model, which jointly captures the two features. Through simulations we show that this new model can be usefully applied in practice. For 23 inflation rate...

In this paper we provide a result that shows existence and uniqueness of Nash equilibrium in cases in which existent methods are problematic to apply. We employ this result to the model with simple logit demand, and show existence and uniqueness of price equilibrium when firms produce multiple...

In this paper we show some further experiments with neural network sampling, a class of sampling methods that make use of neural network approximations to (posterior) densities, introduced by Hoogerheide et al. (2007). We consider a method where a mixture of Student's t densities, which can be...

Several lessons learnt from a Bayesian analysis of basic macroeconomic time series models are presented for the situation where some model parameters have substantial posterior probability near the boundary of the parameter region. This feature refers to near-instability within dynamic models,...

This paper puts forward a data collection method to measure weekly consumer confidence at the individual level. The data thus obtained allow to statistically analyze the dynamic correlation of such a consumer confidence indicator and to draw inference on transition rates, which is not possible...

We analyze the classical inventory model with backordering, where the inventory position is controlled by an order level, order quantity policy. The cost for a backorder contains a fixed and a time-proportional component. Demand can be driven by any discrete process. Order lead times may be...

Based on simple time series plots and periodic sample autocorrelations, we document that monthly river flow data display long memory, in addition to pronounced seasonality. In fact, it appears that the long memory characteristics vary with the season. To describe these two properties jointly, we...

We visualize a a web server log by means of multidimensional scaling. To that end, a so-called dissimilarity metric is introduced in the sets of sessions and pages respectively. We interpret the resulting visualizations and find some interesting patterns.

This article proposes a modified method for the construction of diffusion indexes in macroeconomic forecasting using principal component regres- sion. The method aims to maximize the amount of variance of the origi- nal predictor variables retained by the diffusion indexes, by matching the data...

Subjective probabilities play an important role in marketing research, for example where individuals rate the likelihood that they will purchase a new to develop product. The tau-equivalent model can describe the joint behaviour of multiple test items measuring the same subjective probability....