[eng] At the end of July, most industrialised countries were already on the path of a downturn. Japan and Germany were exceptions in that respect : a slowdown was only anticipated at the beginning of 1991, when the exceptional stimulus to their internal demands would have faded. In many european...

[eng] The Respite Département des diagnostics de l'OFCE Following the upheavals of 1986, 1987 has so far been somewhat calmer. The depreciation of the dollar came to an end. The price of oil has come back to 18 $/bl and stabilised. Slow economic growth has continued in the major industrialised...

[eng] The rescheduling of external debt, which has marked 1983, has imposed greater restraint on many LDCs, thus reducing their imports. The consequent fall in world demand could be partly offset by the recovery in US imports, the impact of the federal budget being reinforced in the short term...

[eng] The recovery of économie activity in OECD countries, which started in the spring of 1987, continued through the second half of 1988. It was boosted by the international trade of manufactured goods, which has been growing at an annual rate of 11 % since mid-1987 (in volume terms). Thèse...

[eng] Though Europe is indeed going through an activity slowdown, it could stand as the most dynamic area during the next two years. It will probably benefit from the opening of eastern Europe whereas the United States, still entangled in their twin deficits, are reaching the end of business...

[eng] The collapse of oil prices together with the depreciation of the dollar fail to bring the world economy back to its pre-oil shock situation. At the beginning of spring, the real price of oil is still twice what it was at the end of 1973. Besides, many decisions in the field of investment...

[eng] Economic developments have been less spectacular in Europe than in the United States over the past two years, but have probably laid firmer foundations for sustained growth. Strict fiscal policies have indeed resulted in the beginnings of a decline in structural deficits but have also...

[eng] The favourable impact on OECD countries of the decline of oil prices, amplified in most cases by the depreciation of the US dollar, have been long awaited for. Households have increased their savings rate before starting to spend their additional income. Entreprises, anticipating...

[eng] Falling back on cash-flow Forecasts for 1993-1994 Département des diagnostics Industrial production has probably reached a trough in the OCDE zone during the first quarter or 1 993. Unfortunately for France, this does not mean that its international environment will become a driving...

[eng] Inflation Under Control Département des diagnostics For more than a year, the main industrialised countries have enjoyed rapid economic growth and buoyant external trade. Investment has picked up everywhere, though not fast enough to prevent a surge in capacity utilization. Nevertheless,...