This paper analyzes the conditions under which a financial institution is systemically important. Measuring the level of systemic importance of financial institutions, we find that size is a leading determinant confirming the usual 'Too Big To Fail' argument. Nevertheless, the relation is...

This paper provides a new estimation method for the marginal expected shortfall (MES) based on multivariate extreme value theory. In contrast to previous studies, the method does not assume specific dependence structure among bank equity returns and is applicable to both large and small systems....

We analyze the cross-sectional differences in the tail risk of equity returns and identify the drivers of tail risk. We provide two statistical procedures to test the hypothesis of cross-sectional downside tail shape homogeneity. An empirical study of 230 US non-financial firms shows that...

This paper investigates how the downside tail risk of stock returns is differentiated cross-sectionally. Stock returns follow heavy-tailed distributions with downside tail risk determined by the tail shape and scale. If safety-first investors are concerned with sufficiently large downside...

This paper empirically analyzes the determinants of banks' systemic importance. In constructing a measure on the systemic importance of financial institutions we find that size is a leading determinant. This confirms the usual "Too big to fail" argument. Nevertheless, banks with size above a...

The statistical theory of extremes is extended to observations that are non-stationary and not independent. The non-stationarity over time and space is controlled via the scedasis (tail scale) in the marginal distributions. Spatial dependence stems from multivariate extreme value theory. We...

This paper investigates the prediction of Value-at-Risk (VaR) using option-implied information obtained by the maximum entropy method. The maximum entropy method provides an estimate of the risk-neutral distribution based on option prices. Besides commonly used implied volatility, we obtain...

In this paper, we propose a test for the multivariate regular variation model. The test is based on testing whether the extreme value indices of the radial component conditional on the angular component falling in different subsets are the same. Combining the test on the constancy across...

This paper studies the detection of outliers in risk indicators based on large value payment system transaction data. The ten risk indicators are daily time series measuring various risks in the large value payment system, such as operational risk, concentration risk and liquidity flows related...

This paper investigates the maximum entropy method for estimating the option implied volatility, skewness and kurtosis. The maximum entropy method allows for non-parametric estimation of the risk neutral distribution and construction of confidence intervals around the implied volatility....