Weather information demonstrates predictive power in forecasting electricity prices in day-ahead markets in real time. In particular, next-day weather forecasts improve the forecast accuracy of Scandinavian day-ahead electricity prices in terms of point and density forecasts. This suggests that...

We use tools of extreme value theory to extract information about rare events from market prices. We find that such information contributes materially to measures of banks' systemic importance. These measures exhibit strong and intuitive relationships with simple characteristics of banks'...

Let X={X(s)}s∈S be an almost sure continuous stochastic process (S compact subset of Rd) in the domain of attraction of some max-stable process, with index function constant over S. We study the tail distribution of ∫SX(s)ds, which turns out to be of Generalized Pareto type with an extra...

In extreme value analysis, staring from Smith (1987) [1], the maximum likelihood procedure is applied in estimating the shape parameter of tails--the extreme value index [gamma]. For its theoretical properties, Zhou (2009) [12] proved that the maximum likelihood estimator eventually exists and...

In this paper, we study the aggregated risk from dependent risk factors under the multivariate Extreme Value Theory (EVT) framework. We consider the heavy-tailedness of the risk factors as well as the non-parametric tail dependence structure. This allows a large range of models on the...

Internet auctions attract numerous agents, but only a few become active bidders. A major difficulty in the structural analysis of internet auctions is that the number of potential bidders is unknown. Under the independent private value paradigm (IPVP)the valuations of the active bidders form a...

The paper is about the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator for the extreme value index. Under the second order condition, Drees et al. [H. Drees, A. Ferreira, L. de Haan, On maximum likelihood estimation of the extreme value index, Ann. Appl. Probab. 14 (2004) 1179-1201]...

This paper provides a regression approach to estimate tail dependence measures. The estimates coincide with the non-parametric estimates following Extreme Value Theory. The approach can easily be extended to higher dimensional analysis. We provide an example on international stock markets.

By introducing the concept of conditional probability of joint failure (CPJF), and by proposing a new measure for the systemic impact of currency crises, we provide new insights into the different sources of currency crises. We conclude that financial openness helps to diminish the probability...

We investigate whether the anchoring properties of longrun inflation expectations in the United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom have changed around the economic crisis that erupted in mid-2007. We document that surveybased measures of long-run inflation expectations remained fairly...