We model cartel defection in markets with stochastic demand fluctuations as an investment timing problem. We show that (i) the optimal timing of cartel defection is pro-cyclical, suggesting higher probability of competitive pricing during booms; and (ii) the defection trigger is a positive...

We analyze the returns to targeting the Australian, New Zealand and South African currencies, through Japanese yen-funded forward market speculation – with a particular focus on the South African rand. Targeting the rand through forward currency speculation generates returns which are as...

We implement a recursive out-of-sample method to examine anomalies-based ex-ante predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We obtain a series of simulated out-of-sample returns, consistent with investors using only prior information when choosing predictor variables. We find that, by...

This paper presents a detailed empirical examination of the South African equity premium; and a quantitative theoretic exercise to test the canonical inter-temporal consumption-based asset-pricing model under power utility. Over the long run, the South African stock market produced average...