We rely on the Atlanta Fed's Business Inflation Expectations survey to draw inference about firms' inflation perceptions, expectations, and uncertainty through the lens of firms' unit (marginal) costs. Using methods grounded in the survey literature, we find evidence that the concept of...

We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms reports significant or severe disruption to sales activity than to supply chains....

Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic...

This paper proposes three new panel unit root tests based on Zaykin et al. (2002)’s truncated product method. The first one assumes constant correlation between p-values and the latter two use sieve bootstrap that allows for general forms of cross-section dependence in the panel units. Monte...

We investigate the impact of an uncertain number of false individual null hypotheses on commonly used p-value combination methods and find that the performance of these methods varies substantially under such uncertainty. These variations yield conflicting results in meta-analysis, motivating...