Se propone una nueva medida de la inflación subyacente que informa, en tiempo real, sobre los riesgos asimétricos en las previsiones de inflación. Las asimetrías son generadas por no linealidades inducidas por la actividad económica. El nuevo indicador se basa en un modelo multivariante de...

Rationale Inflation surged in the world economy from 2021 owing to a succession of shocks, including most notably the rise in energy prices. However, it appears to have peaked in many countries over the past few months, marking the start of a declining phase. This article analyses, for a group...

This paper - which takes into consideration overall experience with the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as well as the improvements made to this measure of inflation since 2003 - finds that the HICP continues to fulfil the prerequisites for the index underlying the ECB's definition of...

From 2013 up to the launch of the ECB's strategy review in January 2020, inflation in the euro area was low and over-predicted. This low inflation during the years 2013-19 can be attributed to a combination of interconnected factors. Cyclical developments account for a substantial share of the...

We propose a new measure of underlying inflation that informs, in real time, about asymmetric risks on the outlook of inflationary pressures. The asymmetries are generated through nonlinearities induced by economic activity. The new indicator is based on a multivariate regime-switching framework...

The paper analyses the development in inflation in Denmark during the last century. New annual input-output based time-series data for the underlying domestic inflation in Denmark 1903-2002 is constructed by stripping the development in the private consumption deflator for price increases caused...

What are the implications of targeting different measures of inflation? We extend a basic theoretical framework of optimal monetary policy under inflation targeting to include several components of CPI inflation ratio, and analyze the implications of using different measures of inflation as...

From 2013 up to the launch of the ECB’s strategy review in January 2020, inflation in the euro area was low and over-predicted. This low inflation during the years 2013-19 can be attributed to a combination of interconnected factors. Cyclical developments account for a substantial share of the...

This paper – which takes into consideration overall experience with the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as well as the improvements made to this measure of inflation since 2003 – finds that the HICP continues to fulfil the prerequisites for the index underlying the ECB’s...