Salinas, Javier Kapsoli; Aguilar, Brigitt Bencich - In: Revista Economía (2004) 53-54, pp. 213-254
This paper shows a procedure to constmct a short run predictor for the GDP. We use the Baxter & King filter to decompose the monthly GDP on its three components: seasonal, business cycle and iong-run trend. Furthermore we estimate and forecast the business cycle using a set of leading economic...