Extreme value theory is widely used financial applications such as risk analysis, forecasting and pricing models. One of the major difficulties in the applications to finance and economics is that the assumption of independence of time series observations is generally not satisfied, so that the...

Many are interested in China’s energy situation, however, numerous energy related issues in China still remain unanswered, for example, what are the potential forces driving energy demand and supply? Previous reviews focused only on fossil fuel based energy and ignored other important elements...

In this paper we consider the forecasting performance of a range of semi- and non- parametric methods applied to high frequency electricity price data. Electricity price time-series data tend to be highly seasonal, mean reverting with price jumps/spikes and time- and price-dependent volatility....

A pastoral boom led to higher farm and manufacturing productivity and to New Zealand attaining the world’s highest HDI in 1913. Staple exports invigorated the land market, diffused rural land ownership, and fostered intensive growth. The gains from higher land prices spread widely, but land...

A new extreme value mixture modelling approach for estimating Value-at-Risk (VaR) is proposed, overcoming the key issues of determining the threshold which defines the distribution tail and accounts for uncertainty due to threshold choice. A two-stage approach is adopted: volatility estimation...

Employing the new regression tests for Convergence, Club Convergence and Clustering proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007), this paper models and analyzes the behavior of China‘s energy sectors. Energy market =convergence clusters‘ are identified using new price data and their regional spatial...

We show that the asymptotic distribution of the ordinary least squares estimator in a cointegration regression may be bimodal. A simple case arises when the intercept is erroneously omitted from the estimated model or in nonlinear-in-variables models with endogenous regressors. In the latter...

This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil...

After a commercial whaling moratorium was enacted in 1986, whale watching became one of the fastest growing tourism industries worldwide. As whaling is regarded as an activity that is incompatible with whale watching, the possible resumption of commercial whaling has caused an urgent need to...

In this paper we consider a nonlinear model based on neural networks as well as linear models to forecast the daily volatility of the S&P 500 and FTSE 100 futures. As a proxy for daily volatility, we consider a consistent and unbiased estimator of the integrated volatility that is computed from...