Milton Friedman is usually regarded as an instrumentalist on the basis of his infamous claim that economic theories are to be judged by their predictions and not by the realism of their assumptions. This interpretation sits oddly with Friedman’s empirical work – e.g., Friedman and...

Causal relations between U.S. federal taxation and expenditure are analyzed using an approach based on the invariance of econometric relationships in the face of structural inverventions. Institutional evidence for interventions or changes of regime and econometric tests for structural breaks...

The 1970s and early 1980s witnessed two main approaches to the analysis of monetary policy. The first is the early new classical approach of Lucas, based on the assumptions of rational expectations and market clearing. The second is the atheoretical econometrics of Sims’s VAR program. Both...

This paper investigates the ability of the Federal Reserve to manipulate the overnight rate without open market operations (which Demiralp and Jorda (2000) term the announcement effect), using high-frequency, open-market-desk data. Using similar data, Hamilton (1997) takes advantage of forecast...

The traditional view of the monetary transmission mechanism rests on the premise that the Federal Reserve (Fed) controls the level of the Federal funds rate via open market operations and the liquidity effect. By contrast, this paper argues that the Fed also manipulates the Federal funds rate...

An in-kind subsidy is equivalent, both theoretically and empirically, to an increase of income for an individual consumer. But the equivalence does not empirically carry over to in-kind grants by a central government to a local one: this has been seen as an anomaly and dubbed the â??flypaper...

The concept of a strict extended partial order (SEPO) has turned out to be very useful in explaining (resp. rationalizing) non-binary choice functions. The present paper provides a general account of the concept of extended binary relations, i.e., relations between subsets and elements of a...

The traditional view of the monetary transmission mechanism rests on the<p> premise that the Federal Reserve (Fed) controls the level of the Federal<p> funds rate via open market operations and the liquidity effect. By contrast,<p> this paper argues that the Fed also manipulates the Federal funds rate...</p></p></p>

The transcript of a panel discussion marking the fiftieth anniversary of John Muth's "Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements" (Econometrica 1961). The panel consists of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace. The discussion is moderated by...