When a significance test fails to disconfirm a hypothesis economist often interpret this as evidence that this hypothesis is valid. Six such examples are cited from recent journals. But this is a misinterpretation of what significance tests show. Presumably this misinterpretation is founded on...

How can one tell whether academic research influences macroeconomic policy? One possibility is to look at government documents that set forth macro policy. This paper looks for such traces in U.S., European and Japanese documents. Because of ease of access it focuses on U.S. documents. Numerous...

This contribution to a Festschrift for Warren Samuels argues that in giving policy advice economists should seek diversification and consider the probability of error, and also the loss function and risk aversion. And since advocacy of a theory is in a relevant way like a policy decision, the...

Economists do not communicate efficiently and methodologists should expand their bailiwick to deal with this and with similar practical problems. Both the quality of and the professional prestige associated with popular writing should be enhanced. Academic economists need to pay more attention...

Many leading methodologists have described the central role that Milton Friedman''s 1953 essay (henceforth referred to as F53) has played in methodological discussions. (See for instance Daniel Hammond, 1998; Kevin Hoover; 2001; Roger Backhouse 2002.) However, it does not necessarily follow that it has...

The differential response of cash reserves of member banks and nonmember banks not subject to the 1936-37 increase in reserve requirements is estimated to determine whether the 1937-38 recession was caused by the increase in reserve requirements. We identify 17 states that maintained constant...

Economists sometimes interpret the failure of a significance test to disconfirm a hypothesis as evidence that this hypothesis is valid. Six examples of this are cited from recent journals. But this is a as interpretation of what significance tests show. While in general it is correct that every...

In 1956 when Friedman published his ""The Quantity Theory of Money: A Restatement"" he faced a daunting task because of the widespread hostility to the quantity theory. This paper looks at the rhetoric (in the non-pejorative sense of the term) that he used to overcome this obstacle, and at some...

Why was the Fed so inflationary in 1965-79? No single explanation suffices. Forecast errors and poor operating procedures played at most a minor role. Unwillingness to accept greater interest-rate variation and cognitive errors played a greater role. Political pressures also played a role, but,...

The standard loss function gives the same weight to positive and negative deviations from the output and inflation targets. This short note criticizes this symmetry assumption. If the period covered is long enough output growth in excess of the target, and often also inflation rates that are...