The Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC) of the National Bureau of Economic Research provides a historical chronology of business cycle turning points. This paper investigates three central aspects about this chronology: (1) How skillful is the BCDC in classifying economic activity into...

This paper applies the intertemporal approach to the current account to the case of monetary shocks. A two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with predetermined wages is proposed as a means to bridge the gap between Mundell-Fleming and modern intertemporal models. Early versions of...

China's impressive growth is rooted in the liberalization of a surplus labor economy that has a high saving rate. The reallocation of surplus agriculture labor to industry and service sectors generates a growth effect that shows up in total factor productivity (TFP) growth. Net TFP, the...

Children who grow up in more highly educated families have better labor market outcomes as adults than those who grow up in less educated families, but we do not know whether this is because education bestows parents with skills that make them better parents or because unobservable endowments...

This paper provides three measures of the uncertainty associated to an impulse response path: (1) conditional confidence bands which isolate the uncertainty of individual response coefficients given the temporal path experienced up to that point; (2) response percentile bounds} which provide...

This paper surveys the monetarist position on various aspects of American monetary policy in an informal way and provides the personal reactions of a participant observer in this debate. It emphasizes the intellectual milieu in which monetarism emerged, the background factors that facilitated...

Long-run cross-country price data exhibit a puzzle. Today, richer countries exhibit higher price levels than poorer countries, a stylized fact usually attributed to the Balassa- Samuelson effect. But looking back fifty years, this effect virtually disappears from the data. What is often assumed...

We characterize the class of n-person belief systems for which common belief has the properties of the strongest logic of belief, KD45. The characterizing condition states that individuals are not too mistaken in their beliefs about common beliefs. It is shown to be considerably weaker than the...

We develop an empirical framework to assess the importance of trade and technical change on the wages of production and nonproduction workers. Trade is measured by the foreign outsourcing of intermediate inputs, while technical change is measured by the shift towards high-technology capital such...

Many of Boettke''s criticisms of formalist economics are justified. However, he defines it so broadly that it becomes practically synonymous with mainstream economics. Yet he blames it for the specific sins of formalist economics more narrowly defined. And since he treats Austrian econornics as...