This paper develops a small model of the output-inflation process in the United States in order to examine the implications of alternative monetary policy rules. In particular, two types of policy rules are considered; a myopic rule where interest rates respond contemporaneously to output and...

This paper examines credit origins of the business cycle in the former Czechoslovakia. Industrial production is found to be cointegrated with various measures of bank credit during 1976-90 and it is shown that noninvestment credits are Granger-causing industrial production and that a feedback...

A stylized fact of the transition process is an early profound exchange rate depreciation followed by continuing real appreciation. Absent historical reference points, it is difficult to judge whether the real appreciation is threatening competitiveness. This paper interprets the stylized facts...

Previous tests for convexity in the Phillips curve have been biased because researchers have employed filtering techniques for the NAIRU that have been fundamentally inconsistent with the existence of convexity. This paper places linear and nonlinear models of the Phillips curve on an equal...

The paper uses data from transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe to assess four questions: (i) Did the standard blueprint for stabilization work, and was it implemented? (ii) To what extent was normal macroeconomics impeded by solvency problems in banks, and how successful have been...

This paper seeks to extend discussion of monetary policy instruments to the situation of a country faced with major capital inflows when the process of domestic financial liberalization is incomplete. It briefly summarizes the recent usage of traditional monetary instruments, discusses the...

This paper examines whether expansionary credit policy can help sustain output growth in transition economies, with particular reference to Ukraine`s experience since 1992. We find that, while real credit growth is indeed associated with higher output growth, an increase in the growth rate of...

The main objective of this paper is to identify a set of leading indicators of inflation for the United Kingdom, and discuss the conceptual issues pertaining to inflation targeting. The main conclusions are that narrow money has strong leading indicator properties for inflation, while broad...

We examine whether Mexico`s disinflation experience during 1987-94 fits a widely accepted set of stylized facts of exchange rate-based stabilization (ERBS), and relate it to theories put forward to account for the boom-recession business cycle associated with ERBS. A cursory look at Mexican data...

This paper examines issues in sequencing and pacing capital account liberalization and draws lessons from experience in four countries (Chile, Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand). The paper focuses on the interrelationship between capital account liberalization, domestic financial sector reforms,...