In this paper we investigate the impact of data revisions on forecasting and model selection procedures. A linear ARMA model and nonlinear SETAR model are considered in this study. Two Canadian macroeconomic time series have been analyzed: the real-time monetary aggregate M3 (1977-2000), and...

This paper considers the "learning curve" relationship between the aggregate tax rate and the relative size of the hidden economy in New Zealand. Some simple non-linear models are estimated so that the effects of changes in the effective tax rate on the underground economy can be simulated. We...

The Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit test has a highly skewed and non-standard limit distribution. Various attempts have been made to tabulate the associated critical points, using both theoretical approximations and simulation methods. We show that a standard saddlepoint approximation performs...

This paper continues the investigation of Giles and Williams (2000) on export-led growth (ELG). In the first part, we surveyed the empirical export-led growth literature; it was evident that Granger noncausality tests are commonly applied as a test for ELG. In this paper, we explore the...

This paper first derives an adaptive estimator when heteroskedasticity is present in the unit-specific error in an error component model and then compares the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator with various other estimators. While the Monte Carlo results show that the proposed...

A spurious regression model is one in which the dependent and independent variables are non-stationary, but not cointegrated, and the data are not filtered (e.g., by differencing) before the model is estimated. It is well known that in this case the asymptotic behaviour of the least squares...

A “spurious regression” is one in which the time-series variables are non-stationary and independent. It is well-known that in this context the OLS parameter estimates and the R2 converge to functionals of Brownian motions; the “t-ratios” diverge in distribution; and the Durbin-Watson...

Birth order effects are found in empirical work, but lack solid theoretical foundations in economics. Our new modeling approach to children provides this. Each child’s needs change as it grows, and births are sequential. Each child has the same genetic make-up and parents do not favor one...

Walton Hamilton was one of the major promoters of American institutionalism in the interwar period. Apart from his own writing - he introduced the term institutional economics into the literature in a 1918 conference paper - Hamilton was closely associated with the creation of educational...

We examine the finite sample properties of the MLE for the Logit model with random covariates. We derive the second order bias and MSE function for the MLE in this model, and undertake some numerical evaluations to illustrate the analytic results. From these numerical results we find, for...