The goal of this thesis is twofold: it aims, firstly, at a description of cycles in SouthAfrican financial variables and, secondly, at the evaluation of the relationshipbetween cycles in financial variables and the South African business cycle. The studyis based on the original business cycle...

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Suriname’s macroeconomic performance has strengthened markedly over the past decade. Since 2000, stronger policies and buoyant commodity prices, supported by political stability, have helped improve macroeconomic performance, enabling...

This study proposes a data-based algorithm to select a subset of indicators from a large data set with a focus on forecasting recessions. The algorithm selects leading indicators of recessions based on the forecast encompassing principle and combines the forecasts. An application to U.S. data...

Manufacturing in the Fifth District: assessing its role during the great recession by Robert H. Schnorbus (p. 48-51)

Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia> Delaware State Chamber of Commerce, DuPont Country Club, Wilmington, Delaware, May 7, 2010

Presented by Charles I. Plosser, President and Chief Executive Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. ; Blair County Chamber of Commerce Breakfast Club, Altoona, PA, June 11, 2010

This paper uses multi-level factor models to characterize within- and between-block variations as well as idiosyncratic noise in large dynamic panels. Block-level shocks are distinguished from genuinely common shocks, and the estimated block-level factors are easy to interpret. The framework...

Central banks analyze a wide range of data to obtain better measures of underlying inflationary pressures. Factor models have widely been used to formalize this procedure. Using a dynamic factor model this paper develops a measure of underlying inflation (UIG) at time horizons of relevance for...

The ifo Institute is Germany’s largest business survey provider, with the ifo Business Climate Germany as one of the most important leading indicators for gross domestic product. However, the ifo Business Survey is not solely limited to the Business Climate and also delivers a multitude of...