In recent years, the Federal Reserve has become more explicit in stating a goal of gradually reducing inflation to near zero rtes. An important consideration in seeking lower inflation is the transition cost (lost output and employment) incurred in the process. In this paper we ask whether the...

Northwest Arkansas Convention Center, Rogers, Ark, June 4, 2008

Macroeconomics Advisers' Quarterly Outlook Meeting, St. Louis, June 11, 2008

Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, seems to have settled at an annual rate of about 2 percent. Is that rate too low? In this article, William Poole, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, states his belief that the Federal Reserve's target should be zero...

“Expectations” is the Twenty-Second Henry Thornton Lecture, given by the author at the Department of Banking and Finance, City University Business School, London, England, on November 28, 2000.