An earlier version of this article was delivered as a speech to the Money Marketeers of New York University, New York, New York, May 18, 2011.

Quantitative Easing (QE) Conference. 30 June 2011, St. Louis, MO

We study a stylized theory of the volatility reduction in the U.S. after 1984?the Great Moderation?which attributes part of the stabilization to less volatile shocks and another part to more difficult inference on the part of Bayesian households attempting to learn the latent state of the...

Delivered at the High Profile Speaker Series, New York Society of Security Analysts, New York City. November 8, 2010.

Presented at the National Economists Club, Washington D.C. December 2, 2010.

In this paper the author discusses the possibility that the U.S. economy may become enmeshed in a Japanese-style deflationary outcome within the next several years. To frame the discussion, the author relies on an analysis that emphasizes two possible long-run steady states for the economy: one...

Presented at the Bowling Green Area Chamber of Commerce. February 24, 2011.

April 18, 2011. Presented at Kentucky Day with the Commissioner, Louisville, Ky.