We use realized volatility to study the influence of central bank interventions on the yen/dollar exchange rate. Realized volatility is a technical innovation that allows specifying a system of equations for returns, realized volatility, and interventions without endogeneity bias. We find that...

We study the stability of estimated linear statistical relations of global mean temperature and global mean sea level with regard to data revisions. Using four different model specifications proposed in the literature, we compare coefficient estimates and long-term sea level projections using...

We forecast daily realized volatilities with linear and nonlinear models and evaluate the benefits of bootstrap aggregation (bagging) in producing more precise forecasts. We consider the linear autoregressive (AR) model, the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model (HAR), and a non-linear HAR model...

We study the simultaneous occurrence of long memory and nonlinear effects, such as structural breaks and thresholds, in autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series models and apply our modeling framework to series of daily realized volatility. Asymptotic theory for the quasi-maximum...

The literature on excess return prediction has considered a wide array of estimation schemes, among them unrestricted and restricted regression coefficients. We consider bootstrap aggregation (bagging) to smooth parameter restrictions. Two types of restrictions are considered: positivity of the...

While up to the late 1990s Japanese foreign exchange intervention was fully sterilized, Japanese monetary authorities left foreign exchange intervention unsterilized when Japan entered the liquidity trap in 1999. According to previous research on foreign exchange intervention, unsterilized...