How does a shifting economic power balance between the United States and China affect the strategic choices of Latin American governments? During the last several decades, Latin America has often relied on a Western development model that aimed to attract global market capital. After excessive...

In this paper we present a multivariate analysis of the Federal Reserve’s forecasts. First, we evaluate the Fed’s forecasts of the ten major expenditure categories of real GDP. Second, we present a new methodology for evaluating multivariate forecasts. Finally, we use the same...

How does a shifting economic power balance between the United States and China affect the strategic choices of Latin American governments? During the last several decades, Latin America has often relied on a Western development model that aimed to attract global market capital. After excessive...

The influential contributions of DiNardo, Fortin, and Lemieux (1996), Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux (2009), Machado and Mata (2005), and Donald, Green, and Paarsch (2000) provide researchers with a useful toolbox to estimate counterfactual distributions of scalar random variables. These techniques...

Many theories link urbanization with industrialization; in partic- ular, with the production of tradable (and typically manufactured) goods. We document that the expected relationship between urbanization and the levelofindustrializationisnotpresentinasampleofdevelopingeconomies. The breakdown...

Antidumping proponents in the U.S. often argue that foreign firms use profits obtained behind home market barriers to "subsidize" "unfair" pricing abroad. This paper examines this "sanctuary market" hypothesis for antidumping petitions against U.S. manufacturing exporters. Econometric results...

This paper assesses the predictive power of variables that measure market tightness, such as seller's bargaining power and sale probabilities, on future home prices. Theoretical insights from a stylized search-and-matching model illustrate that such indicators can be associated with subsequent...

This article examines labor rights in US and EU trade agreements and shows that the link of trade and labor rights is a reality for the bulk of the world's trading nations. As nations learn to accept the link between trade and labor, its harder for them to argue that trade and labor rights...

This paper examines the Chinese macroeconomic data revisions at the provincial level. Various characteristics of the data revisions are identified. Do provincial data revisions suggest systematic biases in the initial reports? Do these biases differ by macroeconomic variable? How do provincial...

There is no question that Vietnam has made significant progress in its march to revamp its system to respond to and participate actively in the global economy. It has done this by embracing market principles and freeing up its enormous potential to grow and compete. The U.S. government has...