We create a new weekly index of retail trade that accurately predicts the U.S. Census Bureau's Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). The index's weekly frequency provides an early snapshot of the MRTS and allows for a more granular analysis of the aggregate consumer response to fast-moving events...

US payroll employment data come from a survey of nonfarm business establishments and are therefore subject to revisions. While the revisions are generally small at the national level, they can be large enough at the state level to substantially alter assessments of current economic conditions....

This article provides the public a first look at a new set of indexes constructed from the Chicago Fed’s Beige Book survey, and describes their ability to track economic activity.

It is difficult to consistently improve upon forecasts of inflation based solely on the most recent data on inflation. In this article, we show how to do so. Our main finding is that the most robust forecasts combine information from several different forecasting models, each of which...

This article explains how the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Midwest Economy Index (MEI) can be used to produce quarterly estimates of the annual gross state product (GSP) growth of each state in the Seventh Federal Reserve District.

This article analyzes the recent sources of strength and weakness in the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), using a new measure that is often a leading indicator of the index’s movements.