The Basel II Accord requires that banks and other Authorized Deposit-taking Institutions (ADIs) communicate their daily risk forecasts to the appropriate monetary authorities at the beginning of each trading day, using one or more risk models to measure Value-at-Risk (VaR). The risk estimates of...

A risk management strategy that is designed to be robust to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), in the sense of selecting a Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecast that combines the forecasts of different VaR models, was proposed in McAleer et al. (2010c). The robust forecast is based on the median of the...

Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate...

This paper estimates univariate and multivariate conditional volatility and conditional correlation models of spot, forward and futures returns from three major benchmarks of international crude oil markets, namely Brent, WTI and Dubai, to aid in risk diversification. Conditional correlations...

We analyze the impact of the estimation frequency - updating parameter estimates on a daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly basis - for commonly used GARCH models in a large-scale study, using more than twelve years (2000-2012) of daily returns for constituents of the S&P 500 index. We assess the...

Several procedures to estimate daily risk measures in cryptocurrency markets have been recently proposed in the literature. Among them, procedures taking into account the presence of extreme observations, as well as procedures that include more than a single regime, have performed substantially...

This paper examines the relationship between systemic risk measures across 546 financial institutions in major petroleum-based economies and oil movements. In this paper, we follow two steps. In the first step, we estimate the delta conditional VaR (CoVaR) for the financial institutions and...

This paper examines the relationship between oil price movements and systemic risk of many financial institutions in major petroleum-based economies. We estimate ΔCoVaR for those institutions and thereby observe the presence of elevated increases in the levels corresponding to the subprime and...

We compare Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) following a Stochastic Dominance (SD) approach frequently used to order distributions in terms of welfare and in portfolio selection. Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) recommends bank risk managers to shift the current...