The issue of model risk in default modeling has been known since inception of the Academic literature in the field. However, a rigorous treatment requires a description of all the possible models, and a measure of the distance between a single model and the alternatives, consistent with the...

This paper considers the problem of measuring the exposure to dependence risk carried by a portfolio with an arbitrary number of two-asset derivative contracts. We develop a worst-case risk measure computed over a set of dependence scenarios within a divergence restricted region. The set of...

We propose a new approach to forecasting stock returns in the presence of structural breaks that simultaneously affect the parameters of multiple portfolios. Exploiting information in the cross-section increases our ability to identify breaks in return prediction models and enables us to detect...

Many investors assign part of their funds to asset managers of mutual funds who are given the task of beating a benchmark. Asset managers usually face a constraint on maximum Tracking Error Volatility (TEV), imposed by the risk management office to keep the risk of the portfolio close to that of...

We investigate the dynamics of the relationship between returns and extreme downside risk in different states of the market by combining the framework of Bali, Demirtas, and Levy (2009) with a Markov switching mechanism. We show that the risk-return relationship identified by Bali, Demirtas, and...

We propose new systematic tail risk measures constructed using two different approaches. The first extends the canonical downside beta and co-moment measures, while the second is based on the sensitivity of stock returns to innovations in market crash risk. Both tail risk measures are associated...

Historical VaR, CVaR and ES (Expected Shortfall) to LIQUIDATION Software is a model characterized by its straightforwardness, allowing regulators measure risk using a standard database of primitive factors and portfolio positions only, leaving little error margin in comparing market risk for...

This article presents a simple methodology for computing Value at Risk (VaR) for a portfolio of financial instruments that is sensitive to market risk, rating change, and default risk. An integrated model for market and credit risks is developed. The Jarrow, Lando and Turnbull model (the Markov...

We present the Shortfall Deviation Risk (SDR), a risk measure that represents the expected loss that occurs with certain probability penalized by the dispersion of results that are worse than such an expectation. SDR combines Expected Shortfall (ES) and Shortfall Deviation (SD), which we also...

Standard risk management approaches fail to consider parameter uncertainty, which has led to improper risk management. Blind faith in parameter estimates has too often led to blind faith in the resulting VAR outputs, and when these estimates are too often exceeded the proposed solution is...