This article proposes methods for estimating a Bayesian vector autoregression (VAR) model with an informative steady state prior which also accounts for possible structural changes in the long-term trend of the macroeconomic variables. I show that, overall, the proposed time-varying steady state...

This paper considers the problem of aggregation in the case of large linear dynamic panels, where each micro unit is potentially related to all other micro units, and where micro innovations are allowed to be cross sectionally dependent. Following Pesaran (2003), an optimal aggregate function is...

The goal of this paper is to examine the responsiveness of the UK housing market to real and nominal shocks. To achieve this goal, we use a structural VAR model, based on quarterly data for the period 1957:1-2009:4. We find that in response to an interest rate shock, house prices (aggregate...

This paper examines, for the Brazilian case, if break-even inflation rates (BEIR) extracted from fixed income securities is an unbiased estimator of consumer inflation, measured by the CPI. Our estimates suggest that BEIRs are informative about future inflation, especially for the maturity of...

This paper examines how the interaction between inflation expectations and nominal and real macroeconomic variables has evolved for the United Kingdom over the post-WWII period until 2007. We model time-variation through a Markov-switching structural vector autoregressive framework with variants...

The aim of this paper is to assess whether explicitly modeling structural change increases the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate using a Time-Varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic...

The stable money demand function is a crucial policy tool of the monetary policy of any central bank, which links the monetary sector of an economy to its real sector. Notably, after the global financial crisis of 2007-08, the role of money has come to be envisaged as an essential issue while...