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Macro-economic forecasts are often based on the interaction between econometric models and experts. A forecast that is …
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Experteninterviews, seit langem sind sie in der Forschungspraxis etabliert, doch erst in jüngster Zeit werden sie intensiver methodisch diskutiert. In diesem Buch werden die theoretischen Grundlagen, die methodische Praxis und konkrete Anwendungsfelder von sozialwissenschaftlichen...
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The appropriately selected leading indicators can substantially improve the forecasting of the peaks and troughs of the business cycle. Using the novel methodology of the dynamic bi-factor model with Markov switching and the data for three largest European economies (France, Germany, and UK) we...
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