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Beating the Random Walk : A Performance Assessment of Long-Term Interest Rate Forecasts

den Butter, Frank A. G.; Jansen, Pieter W. - 2008

This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The predictive performance of these approaches is compared using out of sample forecast errors, where...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014213445

Inflation Forecast Contracts

Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker - 2011

We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014179421

The Seer-Sucker Theory : The Value of Experts in Forecasting

Armstrong, J. Scott - 2012

, stock analysts are paid large salaries to forecast the earnings of various companies, and political experts command large …. But because few people pay attention to this evidence, I have come up with what I call the seersucker theory: No matter … how much evidence exists that seers do not exist, suckers will pay for the existence of seers. One would expect experts to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014028483

Probabilistic Coherence Weighting for Optimizing Expert Forecasts

Karvetski, Christopher - 2014

Methods for eliciting and aggregating expert judgment are necessary when decision-relevant data are scarce. Such methods have been used for aggregating the judgments of a large, heterogeneous group of forecasters, as well as the multiple judgments produced from an individual forecaster. This...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013056794

Aggregation of experts opinions and the assessment of tipping points : catastrophic forecasts for higher temperature changes

Basili, Marcello; Crudu, Federico - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013166311

Fan Charts 2.0 : Flexible Forecast Distributions with Expert Judgement

Sokol, Andrej - 2021

I propose a new model, conditional quantile regression (CQR), that generates density forecasts consistent with a specific view of the future evolution of some variables. This addresses a shortcoming of existing quantile regression-based models, for example the at-risk framework popularised by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312061