Policy counterfactuals based on estimated structural VARs routinely suggest that bringing Alan Greenspan back in the 1970s’ United States would not have prevented the Great Inflation. We show that a standard policy counterfactual suggests that the Bundesbank–which is near-universally...

By means of classical Itô's calculus we decompose option prices as the sum of the classical Black-Scholes formula with volatility parameter equal to the root-mean-square future average volatility plus a term due by correlation and a term due to the volatility of the volatility. This...

We study a new parametric approach for particular hidden stochastic models. This method is based on contrast minimization and deconvolution and can be applied, for example, for ecological and financial state space models. After proving consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimation...

This paper develops a particle …ltering algorithm to estimate dynamic equilibrium models with stochastic volatility using a likelihood-based approach. The algorithm, which exploits the structure and profusion of shocks in stochastic volatility models, is versatile and computationally...

This paper investigates how inflation expectations evolve. In particular, we analyze the time-varying nature of the propensity to update expectations and its potential determinants. For this purpose we set up a flexible econometric model that tracks the formation of inflation expectations of...

We rely on high frequency data to explore the joint dynamics of underlying and option markets. In particular, high frequency data make observable the realized variance process of the underlying, so its effects on option price dynamics are tested. Empirical results are confronted with the...

We consider a stochastic volatility model of the mean-reverting type to describe the evolution of a firm’s values instead of the classical approach by Merton with geometric Brownian motions. We develop an analytical expression for the default probability. Our simulation results indicate that...

The geometric Brownian motion is routinely used as a dynamic model of underlying project value in real option analysis, perhaps for reasons of analytic tractability. By characterizing a stochastic state variable of future cash flows, this paper considers how transformations between a state...

Static hedge portfolios for barrier options are extremely sensitive with respect to changes of the volatility surface. In this paper we develop a semi-infinite programming formulation of the static super-replication problem in stochastic volatility models which allows to robustify the hedge...