We estimate forward-looking interest-rate reaction functions for the G3 economies and for a group of countries which recently adopted inflation targets. Some significant shifts in the conduct of monetary policy are detected in the G3 countries, especially in the USA and Japan. In contrast with...

In this paper we evaluate empirically the impact of fiscal policy on two key determinants of long-term growth, i.e., private investment and productivity growth. We mostly focus on a panel of 20 OECD economies from 1970 to 2009, although we also present some estimates based on data for 80...

We explore the time variation of factor loadings and abnormal returns in the context of a four-factor model. Our methodology, based on an application of the Kalman filter and on endogenous uncertainty, overcomes several limitations of competing approaches used in the literature. Besides taking...

I employ a parsimonious model with learning but without conditioning information to extract time-varying measures of market-risk sensitivities, pricing errors and pricing uncertainty. Parameters estimated for U.S. equity portfolios show significant fluctuations, along patterns that change across...