Conventional estimates of the number of uninsured Californians are derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Unfortunately, CPS estimates of the number of people receiving Medi-Cal and welfare (AFDC/CalWORKs) are well below the numbers implied by official Medi-Cal records, suggesting...

As part of recent reforms of the welfare programs in the U.S., many states and localities have refocused their Welfare-to-Work programs from an emphasis on human capital acquisition (i.e., providing basic education and vocational training) to an emphasis on "work-first," (i.e., moving welfare...

This paper reconsiders the methods used in previous studies to assess the welfare caseload movements during the 1990s. We develop a model in which the welfare caseload is the net outcome of past flows onto and off of the caseload and show that such a stock-flow model can explain some of the...

This paper uses the implementation of the new Medicaid 1931(b) program in California and its 58 counties to consider multi-site implementation. Given California's county-operated welfare system, the California Department of Health Services (CDHS) made policy that each of the state's 58 counties...

The welfare caseload evolves through a process of flows onto and off of welfare that can be described with a Markov Chain model. Using formal results for Markov models, this paper examines the dynamic properties of the welfare caseload. In particular, the authors examine steady states, the speed...

Using data from nationwide and California-specific surveys, the authors provide evidence on the importance of the number of "entries" into the welfare system to explain the decline in welfare caseload during the late 1990s.

A substantial literature has considered the effects of welfare reform policies on the aggregate caseload but has been less successful in disaggregating the effects of specific policies. Using monthly caseload data from October 1989 through June 2003, we estimate a flexible model for the dynamic...

CPS estimates of annual health insurance coverage are below estimates from other surveys and administrative data. One potential explanation is that respondents misinterpret the question and report current rather than past year status. The authors use CPS data matched to administrative enrollment...