This paper presents first steps toward robust early-warning models. We conduct a horse race of conventional statistical methods and more recent machine learning methods. As early-warning models based upon one approach are oftentimes built in isolation of other methods, the exercise is of high...

This paper considers binomial approximation of continuous time stochastic processes. It is shown that, under some mild integrability conditions, a process can be approximated in mean square sense and in other strong metrics by binomial processes, i.e., by processes with fixed size binary...

It is well known that the out-of-sample performance of Markowitz's mean-variance portfolio criterion can be negatively affected by estimation errors in the mean and covariance. In this paper we address the problem by regularizing the mean-variance objective function with a weighted elastic net...

A new class of bivariate distributions is introduced that extends the Generalized Marshall-Olkin distributions of Li and Pellerey (2011). Their dependence structure is studied through the analysis of the copula functions that they induce. These copulas, that include as special cases the...

Convex duality for two two different super--replication problems in a continuous time financial market with proportional transaction cost is proved. In this market, static hedging in a finite number of options, in addition to usual dynamic hedging with the underlying stock, are allowed. The...

The dual representation of the martingale optimal transport problem in the Skorokhod space of multi dimensional cadlag processes is proved. The dual is a minimization problem with constraints involving stochastic integrals and is similar to the Kantorovich dual of the standard optimal transport...

We propose a model and an estimation technique to distinguish systemic risk and contagion in credit risk. The main idea is to assume, for a set of $d$ obligors, a set of $d$ idiosyncratic shocks and a shock that triggers the default of all them. All shocks are assumed to be linked by a...

We study an optimal investment control problem for an insurance company. The surplus process follows the Cramer-Lundberg process with perturbation of a Brownian motion. The company can invest its surplus into a risk free asset and a Black-Scholes risky asset. The optimization objective is to...

We consider a multi-stock continuous time incomplete market model with random coefficients. We study the investment problem in the class of strategies which do not use direct observations of the appreciation rates of the stocks, but rather use historical stock prices and an a priory given...

The M and A transactions represent a wide range of unique business optimization opportunities in the corporate transformation deals, which are usually characterized by the high level of total risk. The M and A transactions can be successfully implemented by taking to an account the size of...