Forecasts, models and stress tests are important tools for policymakers and business planners. Recent developments in these related spheres have seen greater emphasis placed on stress tests from a regulatory perspective, while at the same time forecasting performance has been criticized. Given...

Amidst increased attention on climate change, which is characterised by high uncertainties and long‐term time horizons, the financial sector and supervisors are developing methods and approaches for the evaluation of climate‐related financial risks. This paper proposes a transition capacity...

We develop a general approach for stress testing correlations of financial asset portfolios. The correlation matrix of asset returns is specified in a parametric form, where correlations are represented as a function of risk factors, such as country and industry factors. A sparse factor...

This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms’ DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from...

This paper incorporates uncertainties of model risk in a stress scenario for house prices. Our approach consists of mapping the Gaussian (or other alternative) distribution quantiles to the quantiles of the empirical distribution using a statistical criterion. The mapping corrects for the...

• Scenario planning can mitigate losses, increase market expansion, prevent business regional exit and maximise profits.• Global banks must form partnerships with local and Islamic banks in global markets to utilize local expertise, acceptance and success.• Businesses operating in...

Climate risk brings about a new type of financial risk that standard approaches to risk management are not adequate to handle. Amidst the growing concern about climate change, financial supervisors and risk managers are concerned with the risk of a disorderly low-carbon transition. We develop a...

This paper proposes an analytical framework to quantify the impacts of climate policy and transition narratives on economic and financial variables necessary for financial risk assessment. Focusing on transition risks, the scenarios considered include unexpected increases in carbon prices and...

Mitigating climate change requires aligning real economy investments with climate objectives. This pilot study measures the climate consistency of investments in transport infrastructure and vehicles in Latvia between 2008 and 2018, estimated at EUR 1.5 billion per year on average. To do so,...

Qualitative techniques are essential tools for identifying and assessing operational risk (OR). Their relevance in assessing OR can be understood due to the lack of a quantitative static model capable of capturing the dynamic operational risk profile which is shaped by managerial decisions. An...