The paper develops a comprehensive framework for market risk stress testing in internationally active financial institutions. We begin by defining the scope and type of the stress test and explaining how to select risk factors and the stress time horizon. We then address challenges related to...

Qualitative techniques are essential tools for identifying and assessing operational risk (OR). Their relevance in assessing OR can be understood due to the lack of a quantitative static model capable of capturing the dynamic operational risk profile which is shaped by managerial decisions. An...

The combination of experts' probability distributions involved in a due diligence is valuable for encapsulating the accumulated information for decision makers and providing the current state of expert opinion regarding important uncertainties. Therefore, this paper shows how to create and...

Valuation always has to deal with uncertainty. The paper provides an overview and illustration of how Monte Carlo simulation can enrich the due diligence process. Therefore ; the four major software offerings on the market today are reviewed. The investigation addresses different characteristics...

The aim of this study is to conduct macro stress test of credit risk for the Turkish Banking Industry based on scenario analysis. In this study vector auto regression model is used to determine the interrelations between the macroeconomic variables and develop consistent scenarios spread to two...

In the wake of Basel II, stress tests are recommended by most central banks, for their supervisory review process. However, most of these tests fail to consider the probability of occurrence of the shocks. Using data on USD-INR and GBP-INR between January 2000 and February 2001, we couch stress...

Forecasts, models and stress tests are important tools for policymakers and business planners. Recent developments in these related spheres have seen greater emphasis placed on stress tests from a regulatory perspective, while at the same time forecasting performance has been criticized. Given...

We develop a general approach for stress testing correlations of financial asset portfolios. The correlation matrix of asset returns is specified in a parametric form, where correlations are represented as a function of risk factors, such as country and industry factors. A sparse factor...

EU legislators mandated the European Banking Authority to propose a stress scenario methodology for capitalising non-modellable risk factors (NMRF) as foreseen under the Basel Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) rules for market risk. In this paper, we present the foundations of such a...

This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms’ DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from...