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The macroeconomic effect of term premiums is a controversial issue both theoretically and quantitatively. In this paper, we explore the possibility that term premiums affect inflation and the real economy via exchange rate dynamics. For this purpose, we construct a small open economy model with...
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-variate GARCH-in-mean model and volatility spillovers. The empirical results show the significant effects (positive and negative …, respectively) of the stock market returns, interest rate, and exchange rate volatility of the financial sector during the crisis …. Besides, we find, in most cases, significant (positive and negative, respectively) volatility spillovers from market return …
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