Deep-seated, persistent uncertainty is a pernicious feature of climate change. One key parameter, equilibrium climate sensitivity, has eluded almost all attempts at pinning it down more precisely than a ‘likely’ range that has stalled at 1.5–4.5°C for over thirty-five years. The marginal...

We demonstrate the advantages of a climate treaty based solely on rules for international permit markets when there is uncertainty about abatement costs and environmental damages. Such a ‘Rules Treaty’ comprises a scaling factor and a refunding rule. Each signatory can freely choose the...

In a structural dynamic model that incorporates two broad production sectors with different carbon emissions, we find that climate policy uncertainty (CPU) shocks (i) lower the market value of the highly carbon-emitting sector relative to the low carbon-emitting sector, and (ii) reduce real...

Climate change increases weather variability, exacerbating agricultural risk in poor countries. Risk-averse farmers are unable to tailor their planting decisions to the coming season, and underinvest in profitable inputs. Accurate, long-range forecasts enable farmers to optimize for the season...

Climate change and uncertainty about its potential consequences has become a central concern for economists, investors, and policymakers alike. I use a stochastic, dynamic general equilibrium model where final output is produced using a mix of cheap, dirty inputs and expensive, clean inputs and...

Forestry investment involves long time horizons, and planting decisions must be made amidst a range of uncertainties. In the context of these uncertainties, we analyse investment decisions that involve plantation of existing grazing land in exotic versus indigenous forest species. We discuss how...

This paper studies the causal effect of providing information about climate change on individuals' willingness to pay to offset carbon emissions in a randomized control trial. Receiving truthful information about ways to reduce CO2 emissions increases individuals' willingness to pay for CO2...

Nowadays, as stressed by important strategic documents like for instance the 2009 EU White Paper on Adaptation or the recent 2009 “Copenhagen Accord”, it is amply recognized that both mitigation and adaptation strategies are necessary to combat climate change. This paper enriches the rapidly...

In this paper we show that both climate models and economic models studying the effects of climate change are characterized by high uncertainty. Hence, far reaching policy implications such as the net zero goal lack a definite scientific foundation. Neverthelss, it cannot be excluded that the...