The economic expansion in the United States gathered strength during 2003 while price inflation remained quite low. At the beginning of the year, uncertainties about the economic outlook and about the prospects of war in Iraq apparently weighed on spending decisions and extended the period of...

In this paper the authors report the results of the estimation of a rich dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the U.S. economy with both stochastic volatility and parameter drifting in the Taylor rule. They use the results of this estimation to examine the recent monetary...

The U.S. economy performed well across the board in 1997, with low unemployment, robust economic growth, and the lowest sustained inflation in decades. Nevertheless, the current framework for monetary policymaking does not ensure that inflation is down for the count, says Federal Reserve Bank of...