We consider a semiparametric cointegrating regression model, for which the disequilibrium error is further explained nonparametrically by a functional of distributions changing over time. The paper develops the statistical theories of the model. We propose an efficient econometric estimator and...

A key legacy of the Asian financial crisis of 1997–1998 is a sustained drop-off in the investment rates of East Asian countries that were hardest hit by the crisis. We first review the stylized facts of investment in those countries, and then explore and evaluate the various possible...

This paper empirically investigates the extent of investor moral hazard associated with IMF bailouts by analyzing the responses of sovereign bond spreads to the changes in the perceived probability of IMF bailouts of countries undergoing financial crisis. We do not find strong evidence that the...

By utilizing a unique dataset and employing a variant of gravity models, we find strong evidence for the presence of complementarities among bank loans, short- and long-term debts, and portfolio equity holdings. The complementarities can be partially explained by common factors of standard...

This paper investigates why regional trade arrangements (RTAs) are proliferating extensively and how the effects of multiple RTAs, by interacting with each other, evolve over time. Our empirical analysis, based on an extended gravity model utilizing a large panel data set of 175 countries from...

Intersectoral shocks require resource reallocation across sectors while intrasectoral shocks require resource reallocation within sectors. A crucial difference between these shocks is that the former require much higher adjustment costs than the latter. Using accounting data to calculate returns...

Comparing the degree to which idiosyncratic and disaggregate macro shocks (such as regional and industry shocks) are not shared in the economy provides greater understanding of why the economy lacks risk-sharing arrangements in specific areas and can suggest areas where the economy’s...