Stress tests with handpicked scenarios might misrepresent risks either because dangerous scenarios are not considered or because the scenarios considered are too implausible. To overcome these two pitfalls we propose a systematic search for the worst case within a relative entropy ball of...

This paper presents a new framework allowing strategic investors to generate yield curve projections contingent on expectations about future macroeconomic scenarios. By consistently linking the shape and location of yield curves to the state of the economy our method generates predictions for...

Scenarios are used in research, foresight, planning, policy-making and business strategy within the energy domain. There is no common theoretical and methodological framework for making scenario analysis. Rather, definitions and methodologies are most often tailored for specific uses. Scenarios...

A multiperiod model based upon a multicriteria objective function has been developed for a representative area of the Guadalquivir Valley, dividing the irrigated area into homogeneous types of farming as identified by cluster analysis. The model was applied to different future scenarios with a...

As an important policy instrument for climate mitigation, the carbon tax policy design and its consequent social-economic impact calls for more research. In this paper, a dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model – CASIPM-GE model is applied to explore the impact of a carbon tax and...

Analysing different future trajectories of technological developments we assess the prospects for Nordic carbon-intensive industries to significantly reduce direct CO2 emissions in the period 2010–2050. This analysis covers petroleum refining, integrated iron and steel production, and cement...

This paper calculates the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of Beijing over 2005-2011 in light of the Beijing's energy balance table and the carbon emission coefficients of IPCC. Furthermore, based on a series of energy conservation planning program issued in Beijing, the LEAP-BJ model is...

Since the late 1970s, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China has undergone a rapid transition from an agricultural landscape to a metropolitan area. The rapid urbanization has not only increased the area of impervious surfaces in the central plain; it has displaced farmland to the hilly peripheral...

All companies present risks: some can be controlled, others not. The main risks that a company is confronted with are related to the investments, liquidity, solvency, decrease in the demand for products, insolvency, depreciation of the national currency. It is important to identify, quantify and...

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze managers’ ethical judgments in supply chain management. It investigated the influence of those judgments on trust and collaboration in relationships with suppliers. Design/methodology/approach – A scenario-based method was...