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Assessing macro uncertainty in real-time when data are subject to revision

Clements, Michael P. - 2015

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010528209

Subjective and ex post forecast uncertainty : US inflation and output growth

Clements, Michael P. - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009618587

Probability distributions or point predictions? : survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation

Clements, Michael P. - In: International journal of forecasting 30 (2013) 1, pp. 99-117

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010247009

US inflation expectations and heterogeneous loss functions, 1968 - 2010

Clements, Michael P. - In: Journal of forecasting 33 (2014) 1, pp. 1-14

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010424929

Forecast uncertainty : ex ante and ex post ; US inflation and output growth

Clements, Michael P. - In: Journal of business & economic statistics : JBES ; a … 32 (2014) 2, pp. 206-216

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010488569

Why are survey forecasts superior to model forecasts?

Clements, Michael P. - 2010

We investigate two characteristics of survey forecasts that are shown to contribute to their superiority over purely model-based forecasts. These are that the consensus forecasts incorporate the effects of perceived changes in the long-run outlook, as well as embodying departures from the path...