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This paper proposes the use of dynamic factor models as an alternative to the VAR-based tools for the empirical validation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) theories. Along the lines of Giannone et al. (2006), we use the state-space parameterisation of the factor models proposed...
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This paper proposes a method that takes into account the calendar of European and Belgian intraquarterly data releases to automatically update GDP growth expectations or nowcasts in realtime. The role of surveys is well known in the nowcasting literature, but this is the first paper that has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011589099
In this paper we develop a new model that incorporates inflation expectations and can be used for the structural analysis of inflation, as well as for forecasting. In this latter connection, we specifically look into the usefulness of real-time survey data for inflation projections. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011920503
This paper analyses the contribution of survey data, in particular various sentiment indicators, to nowcasts of quarterly euro area GDP. It uses a genuine real-time dataset that is constructed from original press releases in order to transform the actual dataflow into an interpretable flow of...
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