Research on forecasting methods has made important progress over recent years and these developments are brought together in the Handbook of Economic Forecasting. The handbook covers developments in how forecasts are constructed based on multivariate time-series models, dynamic factor models,...

Brazil has long ago removed most of the perverse government incentives that stimulated massive deforestation in the Amazon in the 1970s and 1980s, but the highly controversial policy concerning road building still remains. While data is now abundantly available due to the constant satellite...

Although linear models have been the central focus of econometrics for most of the twentieth century, great developments in non-linear models took place from the latter part of the century. This paper questions the future development of non-linear models in economics and shows (via White's...

Models that may appear to have different properties may in fact produce residuals that differ only in subtle ways. By analysing the relationships between model residuals the problems in distinguishing between models can perhaps be discovered, as illustrated by the econometric examples...

Because utilities bill their residential and commercial customers by cycle on each working day of the month, the calculation of weather variables to associate with monthly sales data is complicated. We examined three different methods of calculating weather variables. 1.(1) For a utility that...

This paper establishes practical criteria for selecting amongst hypothetical data generating processes in cases where the series has long memory and exponential distribution which implies that the innovations have extremely fat tails.