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Volatility clustering and fat tails are prominently observed in financial markets. Here, we analyze the underlying … volatility. Second, we introduce three different indicators to predict those onsets. Each of the three indicators is derived from …, yet, over very short time horizons high or rising volatility exhibits some predictive power. …
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The aim of this paper is to demonstrate how the change in actual and potential market risks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) during the two-year period 2007-2008 can be analyzed with the help of-analysis. In the empirical analysis, the average of the Lyapunov exponents for the dynamic...
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2007-2008. -- Risk measurement ; risk management ; portfolio allocation ; market risk ; credit risk ; systemic risk ; asset …
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stock price volatility, option-based estimates of future volatility, beta, credit default swaps, price — earnings ratios … of financial theory. Measures of volatility and risk premiums today are no lower and perhaps somewhat higher than they …
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