A generalized predictive testing procedure for structural stability in nonlinear dynamic simultaneous equations models is presented. It has several attractive features: (1) the tests are based on easy-to-compute predicted residuals; (2) the prediction subsample can be arbitrarily small; (3) only...

In this paper we examine the prevalence of data, specification, and parameter uncertainty in the formation of simple rules that mimic monetary policymaking decisions. Our approach is to build real-time data sets and simulate a real-time policy-setting environment in which we assume that policy...

Our objective is volatility forecasting, which is core to many risk management problems. We provide theoretical explanations for (i) the empirical stylized fact recognized at least since Taylor (1986) and Ding, Granger, and Engle (1993) that absolute returns show more persistence than squared...

Survey of forecasters, containing respondents' predictions of future values of growth, inflation and other key macroeconomic variables, receive a lot of attention in the financial press, from investors, and from policy makers. They are apparently widely perceived to provide useful information...

It is common for an applied researcher to use filtered data, like seasonally adjusted series, for instance, to estimate the parameters of a dynamic regression model. In this paper, we study the effect of (linear) filters on the distribution of parameters of a dynamic regression model with a...