We introduce easy to implement regression-based methods for predicting quarterly real economic activity that use daily financial data and rely on forecast combinations of MIDAS regressions. Our analysis is designed to elucidate the value of daily information and provide real-time forecast...

We propose a model of dynamic correlations with a short- and long-run component specification, by extending the idea of component models for volatility. We call this class of models DCC-MIDAS. The key ingredients are the Engle (2002) DCC model, the Engle and Lee (1999) component GARCH model...

We introduce easy-to-implement, regression-based methods for predicting quarterly real economic activity that use daily financial data and rely on forecast combinations of mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regressions. We also extract a novel small set of daily financial factors from a large panel of...

This paper deals with the estimation of the risk-return trade-off. We use a MIDAS model for the conditional variance and allow for possible switches in the risk-return relation through a Markov-switching specification. We find strong evidence for regime changes in the risk-return relation. This...

This paper deals with the estimation of the risk–return trade-off. We use a MIDAS model for the conditional variance and allow for possible switches in the risk–return relation through a Markov-switching specification. We find strong evidence for regime changes in the risk–return relation....

We combine self-collected historical data from 1867 to 1907 with CRSP data from 1926 to 2012, to examine the risk and return over the past 140 years of one of the most popular mechanical trading strategies — momentum. We find that momentum has earned abnormally high risk-adjusted returns —a...

This paper documents macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis by two key central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The paper is the result of a collaborative effort between staff at the two institutions, allowing us to study the...