Obtaining the distribution of the profit and loss (PL) of a portfolio is a key problem in market risk measurement. However, existing methods, such as those based on the Normal distribution, and historical simulation methods, which use empirical distribution of risk factors, face difficulties in...

We formulate a general cointegrated vector autoregressive (CVAR) model that nests both a class of consumption Euler equations and various Keynesian type consumption functions. Using likelihoodbased methods and Norwegian data, we find support for cointegration between consumption, income and...

Abstract In this paper we study conditional distributions of independent, but not identically distributed Bernoulli random variables. The conditioning variable is the sum of the Bernoulli variables. We obtain Edgeworth expansions for the conditional expectations and the conditional variances and...

Unpredictability arises from intrinsic stochastic variation, unexpected instances of outliers, and unanticipated extrinsic shifts of distributions. We analyze their properties, relationships, and different effects on the three arenas in the title, which suggests considering three associated...