This paper describes the multisectoral macroeconomic model of a small developing economy in transition, in order to highlight linkages between agriculture and the rest of the economy, and consequences of external opening up. Agriculture is a supply sector, sticky in the short range with market...

Le texte propose un bilan des deux premières années de politique économique de l'équipe de Lula. La première partie rappelle l'héritage du précédent gouvernement de Fernando Henrique Cardoso. En dépit d'importants succès dans la lutte contre l'inflation et la réforme du secteur...

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to...

This paper presents a small macroeconomic model of Kazakhstan to study the impact of various economic policies. The simulations provide insight into the role of a tight monetary policy, higher foreign direct investment, rises in nominal wages and in crude oil prices. The results obtained are in...

We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to...

This paper describes the multisectoral macroeconomic model of a small developing economy in transition, in order to highlight linkages between agriculture and the rest of the economy, and consequences of external opening up. Agriculture is a supply sector, sticky in the short range with market...

This paper presents a quarterly macro econometric model of the Kazakhstan. The main goal is to provide a stylized representation of the Kazakh economy in order to simulate the consequences of several economic policies viewed by the authorities as essential during the period of transition to a...

Les crises de change des années 90 se sont produites dans un contexte d'intégration financière internationale croissante. Elles ont relancé le débat relatif au choix du régime de change. Le triangle éternel de Krugman (1998) permet de comprendre les termes de ce débat. Ce triangle...

Au cours des années 90, les régimes d'ancrage souple dans les marchés émergent ont montré leur fragilité. En effet, de nombreuses crises de change ont frappé ces régimes, laissant alors apparaître un nouveau consensus autour des solutions en coins comme seuls régimes de change viables....