An empirical forecast accuracy comparison of the non-parametric method, known as multivariate Nearest Neighbor method, with parametric VAR modelling is conducted on the euro area GDP. Using both methods for nowcasting and forecasting the GDP, through the estimation of economic indicators plugged...

An empirical forecast accuracy comparison of the non-parametric method, known as multivariate Nearest Neighbor method, with parametric VAR modelling is conducted on the euro area GDP. Using both methods for nowcasting and forecasting the GDP, through the estimation of economic indicators plugged...

Sharpe-like ratios have been traditionally used to measure the performances of portfolio managers. However, they are known to suffer major drawbacks. Among them, two are intricate : (1) they are relative to a peer's performance and (2) the best score is generally assumed to correspond to a...

This chapter recalls the main tools useful to compute Value at Risk associated with a m-dimensional portfolio. Then, the limitations of the use of these tools is explained, as soon as non-stationarities are observed in time series. Indeed, specific behaviours observed by financial assets, like...

The aim of this paper is to show evidence and to quantify with forensic econometric methods the impact of the Value Added Tax fraud on European carbon allowances markets. This fraud mainly occurred at the beginning of between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009. In this paper, we explore...

The aim of this work is to use a new modelling technique for CO2 emission prices, in order to estimate the risk associated with a related, structured product. After a short discussion of the specificities of this market, we investigate several modelling methods for CO2 emission prices. We use...

The aim of this paper is to show evidence and to quantify with forensic econometric methods the impact of the missing trader fraud on European carbon allowances markets. This fraud occurred mainly between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009. In this paper, we explore the financial...

We present a new recursive algorithm to construct vine copulas based on an underlying tree structure. This new structure is interesting to compute multivariate distributions for dependent random variables. We proove the asymptotic normality of the vine copula parameter estimator and show that...

Following Banking Committee on Banking Supervision, operational risk quantification is based on the Basel matrix which enables sorting incidents. In this paper, we deeply analyze these incidents and propose strategies for carrying out the supervisory guidelines proposed by the regulators. The...

The banking systems that deal with risk management depend on underlying risk measures. Following the recommendation of the Basel II accord, most banks have developed internal models to determine their capital requirement. The Value at Risk measure plays an important role in computing this...