The Yule-Walker estimator is commonly used in time-series analysis, as a simple way to estimate the coefficients of an autoregressive process. Under strong assumptions on the noise process, this estimator possesses the same asymptotic properties as the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator....

Exponential smoothing (ES) with ARCH (autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic) and GARCH (generalized ARCH) errors are introduced. This is done for a large class of ES methods, those for which the forecasts are obtained using a set of additive updating formulas, and also those for which an...

The recent financial literature has been much concerned with the short-term interest rate. Several models have been proposed and studied quite extensively. Despite the number of models, relatively little is known about their empirical comparison. A first approach of this problem is proposed in...

We present an estimation procedure for continuous time models based on discrete sampled data with a fixed unit of time between two observations. Since in general the conditional likelihood of the model cannot be derived an indirect inference procedure based on simulations of a discretized model...