IThis paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters’ performance is skill-based. ‘Superior’ fore-casters...

Although the real exchange rate - real interest rate (RERI) relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models, empirical support for the relationship is generally found to be rather weak. In this paper we reinvestigate the RERI relationship using bilateral real exchange rate data...

In this article the monetary approach to the exchange rate is tested for the franc‐pound, dollar‐pound and franc‐dollar exchange rates over the period February 1921 to August 1925. It is shown that the estimation technique utilised is very important. Some out of sample forecasts from a...

This article formulates, estimates and simulates a structural model of the sterling‐dollar exchange rate over the floating rate period. A critique of existing empirical implementations of the asset‐market approach is followed by formulating a small structural model which augments a carefully...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the role of real effective exchange rate (REER) volatility on export volume and also to address the impact of the international financial crisis of 2008. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical methodology is based on...

This Paper proposes a new measure of contagion that is good at anticipating future vulnerabilities. Building on previous work, it uses correlations of equity markets across countries to measure contagion, but in a departure from previous practice, measures contagion using the relationship of...

This paper presents a simultaneous model of exchange rates between the three major countries. In addition to incorporating long-run equilibria and short-run dynamics, the model is designed to capture complex interactions between currencies not normally considered in exchange rate models. These...

Although the real exchange rate-real interest rate (RERI) relationship is central to most open economy macroeconomic models, empirical support for the relationship is generally found to be rather weak. In this paper we re-investigate the RERI relationship using bilateral US real exchange rate...