This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices …

Central bank surveys frequently elicit households’ probabilistic beliefs about future inflation. However, most … household surveys use a response scale that is tailored towards low-inflation regimes. Using data from a randomized controlled … trial included in the Bundesbank Online Panel Households, we show (i) that keeping the original scale in high-inflation …

global economic environment deteriorates. Inflation will likely continue to be elevated in 2022 but may still fall within the … persistently high inflation, an uncertain business environment, and a possible downturn in the world's major economies. The paper …